A liberal polling firm, which has garnered much attention from the mainstream media in Montana, says Jon Tester is in trouble. We are expecting poll the latest poll results from Public Policy Polling (PPP) any day now. Over the weekend, 47 North Communications- a conservative polling firm- released poll results showing the race tied at 45-45.
As a hint of what may be to come, here’s what PPP sent out via twitter:
Meanwhile, 47 North Communications, a conservative consulting firm in Montana, released their latest inside poll results at the MT GOP convention showing a continued dead heat between Congressman Denny Rehberg (R-MT) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). (47 North partner Jake Eaton is also a consultant for Rehberg.)
The 2012 matchup between Denny Rehberg and Jon Tester for U.S. Senate is a dead heat. When asked their preference, 45% would vote for Denny Rehberg and 45% would vote for Jon Tester. Notably, 10% of those surveyed were undecided.
What I find intriguing is the fact that Tester, after being pumped up daily on the airwaves by the banking and credit card industry, still finds himself in a dead heat in the polls. The Rehberg campaign’s senior advisor, Erik Iverson, noted during a presentation over the weekend that Tester received over $60,000 in contributions from swipe fee advocates in the banking industry. In total, Iverson said Tester has benefited from over $344,000 in donations and ads from Wall Street Bank. All of these ads touted Tester for “standing up for rural America.” While the ads didn’t appear to give Tester a bounce, I can only wonder where his poll numbers would have been in the absence of those ads from the banking industry.
While the left would have certainly been quick to dismiss the 47 North poll results as overly optimistic due to their conservative background, that is much harder to do now that a liberal polling firm appears to be on the verge of releasing more results foreshadowing rough waters for Tester in 2012.
Meanwhile, a liberal columnist with The Missoula Independent summed up the challenge facing Senator Tester:
Were one to trace this right-wing revolution in American politics to its recent roots, the inescapable conclusion is that the Tea Party rose to power on one main issue—the mandate in the so-called “health reform” bill, that everyone must buy health insurance. While it’s been dubbed “Obamacare” by the opposition, the truth is that it is actually Baucus-care. Obama didn’t put the bill together or vote for it. The simple but ugly fact is that the health care debacle was strictly the product of a Congress in which both the House and Senate were controlled by the largest Democrat majorities in decades, which could have and should have delivered a better result to the president’s desk.
How ironic is it, then, that almost in an instant the coin flipped and suddenly it was Obama on the hook for deception while the ascendant Tea Party rallied? Surely Montanans remember the summer of 2009, when Denny Rehberg ranted across the state at dozens of citizen rallies while Tester avoided constituents like the plague and Baucus was almost physically intimidated in his few public appearances.
While we are on election news, Attorney General Steve Bullock (D-MT) has been under fire for failing to join the lawsuit challenging Obamacare, and he’s been under fire for voting against the development of the Otter Creek Coal Tracts. Well, now it appears that Bullock could very well be on his way to a 2nd loss at the United States Supreme Court.
Bloomberg News’ Greg Stohr broke the story earlier this week:
The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to review a decision requiring a PPL Corp. (PPL) unit to pay more than $50 million to Montana for the use of riverbeds under the company’s hydroelectric facilities.
PPL Montana is appealing a Montana Supreme Court ruling that said the state owns the riverbeds and is entitled to demand rent payments. The company argues in its appeal that the riverbeds are owned either by private parties or the federal government.