From walkaway Joe to “small favorite.”
If Schweitzer runs in MT, he could start as a small favorite, so sweeping AK, AR, LA & NC may be required for Rs in SEN
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) June 27, 2013
That’s how Larry Sabato with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics sums up the 2014 Senate race in Montana with his latest “Crystal Ball” rankings. Here’s more from the report:
Nothing in politics is static for long, and we expect a shift here and there. For example, if the Republicans nominate far-right Reps. Paul Broun or Phil Gingrey in Georgia, then prospective Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn could actually have a shot at a seat in the congressional chamber her father, Sam, once helped run. On the other hand, if former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) surprises everyone and doesn’t run for the open Senate seat of retiring Democrat Max Baucus in Montana, Republicans will have another likely pickup. So we recognize that the chess board is not yet fully assembled.
(Note the “toss up” reference is from the graphic map on the Crystal Ball web page accessed in the link above.)
PRIOR POST Aaron Flint posted on June 25, 2013 15:40
Dem Pollster: MT Senate “Looks Like a Toss Up” 
A Democratic pollster says the 2014 US Senate race in Montana “looks like a toss up,” throwing a wet blanket on the idea that the Senate seat being vacated by Max Baucus is former Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s (D-MT) for the taking.
Here’s the numbers from Public Policy Polling:
Three candidates rise to the top in our polling: Brian Schweitzer on the Democratic side and Marc Racicot and Steve Daines on the Republican side. And any match up involving those three candidates would be a toss up. Schweitzer leads Daines 48/45, but trails Racicot by a single point at 47/46. Schweitzer overcomes the GOP lean of the state by leading both of them (Daines 50/39 and Racicot 46/41) with independents. He also has the highest favorability rating of any of the potential candidates at 54/40, followed by Racicot at 43/37, and Daines’ approval of 41/33.
Schweitzer would blow both of the Republicans we tested other than Daines and Racicot out of the water.
Click here for the full release from PPP.
How’s it playing in the Twittersphere?
The first tweet is from Dave Catanese, who covered the 2012 Montana Senate Race for Politico:
Schweitzer, not invincible. http://t.co/m3scn0DUEf #MTSEN
— davecatanese (@davecatanese) June 25, 2013
I have #MTsen now rated as a tossup. R takeover of the Senate in 2014 very possible. Ds NEED Schweitzer in the race. https://t.co/Xc1uuywQc7
— Thomas Lavin (@TomLavinNH) June 25, 2013